High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections

🤖 Plain-English Summary

Abstract We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. Additionally, we project that from 1991–2020 to 2071–2099, 5% of the land surface will transition to a different major class under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% under the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 13% under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario.

🔑 Key Findings

• The historical maps (encompassing 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs).
• We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO 2 -induced warming rates.
• We estimate that from 1901–1930 to 1991–2020, approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned to a different major Köppen-Geiger class.

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