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The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic

📅 Published: December 14, 2022 👤 William Msemburi, Ariel Karlinsky, Victoria Knutson et al. 📖 Nature 📊 1,046 citations
AI-Generated Summary

Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist.

⚡ This is an original paraphrased summary — not copied from the abstract. Full paper available at the source link below.

Key Findings
  • 1 Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods.
  • 2 Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021.
  • 3 We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty.
Why It Matters

Understanding this could lead to better treatments, improved diagnostics, or a deeper grasp of how the human body works — benefiting patient care globally.

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